What is the US yield curve telling us?

Marcus Tuck

Head of Research

6 am October 12, 2020


One of the more reliable leading indicators of the economy and equity markets is the shape of the US yield curve.

The measure of the US yield curve we have used in the first chart is the spread between the US 10-year Treasury bond yield (0.77%) and the US 3-month Treasury bill rate (0.09%). The difference of +0.68% is the current spread.

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